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U.S. President Donald Trump announces the Golden Dome missile defence shield in the Oval Office on May 20. Photo by JIM WATSON /AFP via Getty Images
Very soon, the Mark Carney governments much-needed investment in Canadas military will require urgent, historic choices regarding defence priorities and generational financial commitments. But as ministers and policymakers dissect options such as buying cripplingly expensive F-35 fighter jets, there is one move they should not make.
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This spring, the day after King Charles opened Parliament with a speech emphasizing Canadian sovereignty, U.S. President Donald Trump invited Canada to join his proposed Golden Dome for America missile defence system. The president indicated two ways for this to happen: Canada can either become the 51st state (which is a non-starter), or it would have to pony up a staggering $61-billion U.S. (For context, Canadas total 2024-25 military budget is $28.5-billion U.S.)
Canada should decline Trumps invitation.
Beyond the absurdity of handing such a massive sum to a leader who openly threatens to conquer Canada through economic coercion, the Golden Dome requires technology that does not yet even exist, and which will be extremely difficult to develop. (The system is likely to rely heavily on Elon Musks SpaceX aerial moving target identifier, a next-gen system thats still under development and would be unlikely to ever reach a deployable stage if Trump cancels Musks government funding.)
Most modern Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), meaning one missile can becomes 12 independent warheads, only one of which is needed to destroy an entire city. So far, no defence system has come close to a 100-per-cent probability of destroying all incoming missiles, especially those with technology that misleads weapon interception systems.
Effectively integrating diverse systems ground-based radars, sea-based assets, air-based sensors, and a new constellation of space-based sensors and interceptors into a cohesive system of systems is extraordinarily complex. This includes ensuring seamless data fusion, command and control, and communication with near-zero latency.
In Israel, the Iron Dome has generally done well with defending a relatively small territory. We have seen in recent days, though, that Iranian missiles are increasingly able to get through the Iron Dome and strike Israeli targets. Defending the entire U.S. (nearly 500 times the size of Israel) presents an immense challenge in terms of the sheer number of sensors and interceptors needed for adequate coverage. One can only imagine the odds of successfully adding Canadas huge land mass to the mix. However, there is huge money at stake for some defence industry companies and significant political benefits, which no doubt fuels the enthusiasm some military experts express for the Golden Dome.
This advertisement has not loaded yet. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.Unfortunately this fixation on missile defence ignores the fact that contemporary attack methods dont always involve missile-based warfare as their primary tactic. While ICBMS pose a very serious threat, much cheaper weapons such as drones and disinformation campaigns are a far larger threat.
Billions of dollars worth of Golden Dome would provide no defence against these low-cost forms of attack.
Consider Ukraines recent use of drones. Concealed in transport trucks, the drones were driven to areas near Russian airbases, then launched to destroy dozens of bombers parked alongside runways. The trucks were never detected as they travelled thousands of kilometres into enemy territory, and Russian authorities were likewise unaware of Ukrainian military agents operating in the country. The attack was controlled using Russias own telecommunications networks; some of Russias most advanced military jets were vulnerable to ordinance dropped by a few low-flying drones launched from nearby.
Canada lives in the reality that Chinas hybrid information and cyberwarfare capability targets Canadians, on Canadian soil, every day. China routinely succeeds in compromising private, commercial and government networks, presenting an alarming threat to Canadas security. Despite continuous warnings from security and intelligence agencies, Canada has nowhere near enough protection of its infrastructure the internet, banking system, water, electricity, and transportation against these threats. Nor has Canada taken effective steps to identify and neutralize fifth column agents of hostile powers already within Canada, who would be quickly mobilized in time of conflict.
We have seen how Ukraines nimble tactics increasingly define modern-day strategies of attack. Canadas defence spending should prioritize the much more cost-effective and feasible measures to counter the very real, already daily occurring and ever-increasing dangers to Canada in the age of AI.
Charles Burton is a former diplomat at Canadas embassy in Beijing; senior fellow at Sinopsis.cz, a China-focused think tank based in Prague; and a member of the Taiwan-based Doublethink Labs China in World Global Index Committee. Anthony Seaboyer teaches political science and political philosophy at the Royal Military College of Canada.
