Crypto Daybook Americas: It's Glass Half Full Despite Record Short Bitcoin ETF Volume

Your day-ahead look for Dec. 6, 2024

Updated Dec 6, 2024, 3:16 p.m. UTC Published Dec 6, 2024, 12:00 p.m. UTC

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

You know how it feels when you're watching a match, both teams score and you end up with a draw? So, that's the bitcoin market right now.

The bulls pushed prices above $103,000 early Thursday, only for the bears to bite back, crashing prices to $91,000. As it stands, we’re trading steadily around $98,000. Talk about undecided ...

The crash shook out leveraged crypto futures bets worth around $1 billion, bringing a degree of normality to what had become an overheated market. That's possibly a blessing in disguise, because had BTC surged all the way up to $120,000, the eventual leverage shakeout would have been even more severe and could have potentially damaged investor confidence.

The glass-half-full perspective is supported by bitcoin spot ETFs, which managed to pull in a net $766 million despite the chaos.

But there's a glass-half-empty side too. The ProShares Ultra Short Bitcoin ETF, which tracks twice the inverse of bitcoin’s daily performance, also saw a net inflow as well as record trading volume. While the $7 million added is small compared with the long spot ETFs, it shows the bears are ready to make their presence felt.

If it all feels a little shaky, there's more to come, with the chance of downside volatility if U.S. nonfarm payrolls data points to a resilient labour market and sticky wage pressures. That would prompt a recalibration of Fed rate-cut expectations and possibly hurt crypto prices. Weak data, conversely, could yield a price bounce, although trading directionally might be tricky while prices are this indecisive.

In other news, President-elect Donald Trump's appointment of David Sacks as Crypto and AI Czar (which might seem like the opposite of crypto’s decentralization ethos) is being viewed positively for Solana’s ETF prospects. Why? Because at one point, Sacks was associated with the crypto hedge fund Multicoin, one of Solana's early investors. It seems farfetched, but hey it's a typical bull-market narrative.

Looking at the broader market, Hyperliquid’s HYPE token is quickly approaching the $4.6 billion market value of Arbitrum's ARB token in a move that indicates application-specific layer 2s like Hyperliquid are becoming the "real value capture mechanisms for DeFi applications," according to Gautham Santosh, founder of Polynomial Protocol.

Gautham noted on X that building on general-purpose layer 2s could mean constructing someone else's moat, essentially translating your success into their token value. He points out that while Arbitrum-based perpetual protocol GMX generates 54% more revenue than Hyperliquid, its market cap stands at just $376 million or just 8% of Hyperliquid's.

That's a lot to take in for today. So, as trader Alex Kruger said on X, "If you're not a full-time trader, focus on portfolio construction." Stay alert out there!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
  • Dec. 18: CleanSpark (CLSK) Q4 FY 2024 earnings. EPS Est. $-0.18 vs Prev. $-1.02.
• Macro
  • Dec. 6, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases November’s Employment Situation Report.
    • Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Est. 200K vs Prev. 12K.
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs Prev. 4.1%.
    • Average Hourly Earnings MoM Est. 0.3% vs Prev. 0.4%.
    • Average Hourly Earnings YoY Est. 3.9% vs Prev. 4.0%.
  • Dec. 11, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.3%.
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 2.6%
  • Dec. 11, 9:45 a.m.: The Bank of Canada announces its policy interest rate (also known as overnight target rate and overnight lending rate). Prev. 3.75%.
  • Dec. 12, 8:15 a.m.: The European Central Bank (ECB) announces its latest monetary policy decision (three key interest rates).
    • Deposit facility interest rate Prev. 3.25%.
    • Main refinancing operations interest rate Prev. 3.4%.
    • Marginal lending facility interest rate Prev. 3.65%.

Token Events

• Unlocks
  • Solana's Jito to release 105% of JTO circulating supply on Dec. 7 at 10 a.m., worth nearly $500 million at current prices.
  • Neon to release 50% of NEON circulating supply on Dec. 7 at 10 a.m., worth $35 million at current prices.
    
• Token Launches
  • Binance lists Across Protocol's ACX and Orca's ORCA, trading to begin at 8 a.m.
  • Futures of PolyhedraZK's ZKJ went live on OKX.

Conferences:

• Dec. 6: Digital Finance Summit Summit 2024 (Brussels)
• Dec. 7: Bitcoin Baden 2024 (Baden, Switzerland)
• Dec. 9 - 12: Abu Dhabi Finance Week 2024 (Abu Dhabi, UAE)
• Dec. 9 - 13: Luxembourg Blockchain Week 2024
• Dec. 12 - 13: Global Blockchain Show (Dubai)
• Dec. 12 - 14: Taipei Blockchain Week 2024 (Taipei, Taiwan)
• Dec. 16 - 17: Blockchain Association’s Policy Summit (Washington)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa
Ethereum and Base memecoin mog (MOG) surged 40% to set fresh highs Friday on the back of a Coinbase spot market listing. It becomes the second-largest cat-themed token behind Solana-based popcat (POPCAT)

The memecoin is known for its distinctive branding around the meme of a cat laughing with tears (often represented by the "joycat" emoji 😹) and sporting Pit Viper sunglasses. This token doesn't boast any intrinsic utility, thriving instead on its community-driven ethos and the virality of meme culture within the cryptocurrency space.

Meme coins often rely on community hype, and MOG has successfully captured a zeitgeist with its humorous and culturally resonant branding driving demand.

Its cult community often appears to 'mog' other token communities (a slang term for outperforming) on social posts or in replies on X — and that has become a meme itself, further fueling the token’s popularity.

Derivatives Positioning

• BTC and ETH perpetual funding rates have normalized from previously overheated levels, with the ETH rate remaining elevated compared with BTC, suggesting a bullish bias for the ETH/BTC ratio. The positioning in SOL perpetuals is even more bullish.
• The open interest-normalized cumulative volume delta has declined for most major tokens in the past 24 hours, indicating that the sell-off primarily resulted from the unwinding of long positions rather than fresh shorts.
• Despite BTC's quick retrace to sub-$100K levels, calls continue to trade at a premium to puts, although the spread is narrower than it was early Thursday. A similar dynamic is observed in ETH options.
• A large bull call spread crossed the tape on Deribit, involving a long position in the $106,000 strike call and shorting the $110,000 strike call, both expiring on Dec. 27, according to data source Amberdata.

Market Movements:

• BTC is down 0.82% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday to $98,196.16 (24hrs: -4.05%)
• ETH is up 0.27% at $3,870.06 (24hrs: -1.93%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 0.29% to 3,954.73 (24hrs: -3.32%)
• Ether staking yield is down 5 bps to 3.22%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0165% (18.05% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 105.80
• Gold is up 1.12% at $2656.00/oz
• Silver is up 1.73% to $31.67/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed -0.77% at 39,091.17
• Hang Seng closed +1.56% at 19,865.85
• FTSE is unchanged at 8,354.46
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.56% at 4,979.24
• DJIA closed on Thursday -0.55% to 44,765.71
• S&P 500 closed -0.19% at 6,075.11
• Nasdaq closed -0.18% at 19,700.26
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.15% at 25,635.73
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.37% at 2,368.14
• U.S. 10-year Treasury was unchanged at 4.18%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,083.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 21,465.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 44,846.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 55.76% (0.10%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.03937 (1.08%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 800 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $63.02
• Total Fees: 14.28 BTC/ $1.4M
• CME Futures Open Interest: 518K BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 37.3 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 10.62%
• Bitcoin sitting in over-the-counter desk balances: 423.84k

Basket Performance

Technical Analysis

Dollar Index's daily chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

• The chart shows the dollar index (DXY), which tracks the U.S. currency's value against major peers, has dived out of a trendline, characterizing the steep rally from late September lows.
• Renewed losses in DXY will likely ease financial conditions further, supporting more risk-taking in financial markets.

TradFi Assets

• MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $386.4 (-4.83%), up 0.47% at $388.23 in pre-market.
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $320.57 (-3.13%), up 0.83% at $323.24 in pre-market.
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.65 (-0.22%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $24.79 (-4.51%), down 0.69% at $24.96 in pre-market.
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.32 (-4.86%), up 0.16% at $12.34 in pre-market.
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.94 (-3.03%), down 1% at $16.77 in pre-market.
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $13.93 (-5.11%), up 0.5% at $14.00 in pre-market.
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $28.91 (-2.07%), up 0.83% at $29.15 in pre-market.
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $58.55 (-7.65%), up 1.95% at $59.69 in pre-market.

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net inflow: $766.7 million
• Cumulative net inflows: $33.03 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.092 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net inflow: $428.5 million
• Cumulative net inflows: $1.32 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.158 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

Daily stablecoin transfer volume (Artemis)

• The daily stablecoin transfer volume has surged to nearly $150 billion, the most since May.
• Stablecoins are widely used to fund cryptocurrency purchases, derivatives trading and to move capital across borders.

While You Were Sleeping

• Trump Names David Sacks as 'AI and Crypto Czar' (CoinDesk): President-elect Donald Trump appointed David Sacks as his czar for artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency, aiming to boost U.S. leadership in these sectors. Sacks, a PayPal veteran and venture capitalist, will prioritize cryptocurrency regulation and safeguarding free speech while addressing concerns over Big Tech bias.
  
• Macron Vows to Serve Remainder of Term as French President (Bloomberg): French President Emmanuel Macron vowed to serve out his term through 2027, calling for unity after his government was ousted in a no-confidence vote. He pledged to appoint a new prime minister within days to form a government and address France’s stalled budget crisis.
  
• Memecoins Reach $140B Market Cap and Gain Ground in Crypto Economy (CoinDesk): Memecoins, led by dogecoin, have grown 330 percent in market value since Jan. 1, and now account for 3.16% of the crypto market and 5.27% of total trading volume. The growth of new tokens and activity on platforms like Solana has raised questions about the sector’s long-term stability.
  
• Investors Poured $140B Into U.S. Stock Funds After Trump Election Victory (Financial Times): The S&P 500 climbed 5.3 percent in November as investors poured $139.5 billion into U.S. equity funds, the strongest monthly inflow on record, driven by optimism over President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-growth agenda. Meanwhile, equity markets in emerging economies, Europe, and Japan suffered significant outflows amid trade tension fears.
• India’s Central Bank Revises Down Economic Growth Forecast for 2025, Keeps Interest Rate Steady (CNBC): India's central bank held its benchmark interest rate steady at 6.5% on Friday, citing a need to balance rising inflation with economic growth. It also reduced banks’ cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points to 4.0% to support liquidity. The RBI downgraded its fiscal 2025 GDP growth forecast to 6.6%, reflecting concerns over a slowing economy.
  
• Top NFT Brand Pudgy Penguins to Release PENGU Token (CoinDesk): Pudgy Penguins, a top NFT collection, plans to launch a token called PENGU on Solana this year, with 23.5% of its 88 billion supply reserved for holders of related NFTs. Despite the NFT market downturn, Pudgy Penguins’ strong cultural relevance positions it well in a market now favoring memecoins over NFTs.

In the Ether

President-elect on crypto

Omkar Godbole

Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team based in Mumbai, holds a masters degree in Finance and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) member. Omkar previously worked at FXStreet, writing research on currency markets and as fundamental analyst at currency and commodities desk at Mumbai-based brokerage houses. Omkar holds small amounts of bitcoin, ether, BitTorrent, tron and dot.

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Shaurya Malwa

Shaurya is the Co-Leader of the CoinDesk tokens and data team in Asia with a focus on crypto derivatives, DeFi, market microstructure, and protocol analysis. Shaurya holds over $1,000 in BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX, SUSHI, CRV, NEAR, YFI, YFII, SHIB, DOGE, USDT, USDC, BNB, MANA, MLN, LINK, XMR, ALGO, VET, CAKE, AAVE, COMP, ROOK, TRX, SNX, RUNE, FTM, ZIL, KSM, ENJ, CKB, JOE, GHST, PERP, BTRFLY, OHM, BANANA, ROME, BURGER, SPIRIT, and ORCA. He provides over $1,000 to liquidity pools on Compound, Curve, SushiSwap, PancakeSwap, BurgerSwap, Orca, AnySwap, SpiritSwap, Rook Protocol, Yearn Finance, Synthetix, Harvest, Redacted Cartel, OlympusDAO, Rome, Trader Joe, and SUN.

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