Quantum Computing Threat to Bitcoin Still “Decades Away”

By Mark Hunter

2 days agoWed Dec 11 2024 10:39:05

Reading Time: 2 minutes

• Google’s unveiling of the “Willow” quantum chip yesterday has reignited concerns about Bitcoin’s security
• Experts have debated the potential for quantum computers to compromise Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses
• Despite advancements, experts assert that Bitcoin remains secure against quantum computing capabilities for years to come

The threat to Bitcoin from quantum computing is still “decades away,” despite the announcement of the world’s most powerful computer chip yesterday. That’s the opinion of experts in the wake of Google’s recent introduction of its “Willow” quantum computing chip, which has sparked renewed discussions regarding the security of Bitcoin’s cryptographic systems. While some experts express concerns about the potential for quantum computers to breach Bitcoin’s encryption, the consensus is that such threats remain theoretical at this stage.

Willow Plants a New Seed

On December 10, 2024, Google announced a significant breakthrough with its Willow quantum chip, claiming it can solve complex problems in minutes that would take classical supercomputers billions of years. Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google, stated, “This advancement brings us closer to practical quantum computing applications.” 

Training a medium-sized AI language model, like GPT-3, on a high-end traditional computer using a CPU could take weeks or even months, with the computer using hundreds of kilowatt-hours daily, resulting in high electricity costs and a large environmental footprint. In contrast, the Willow chip can complete the same training task in a fraction of the time—just a couple of days and using a fraction of the power.

Impact on Bitcoin

The development of powerful quantum processors like Willow has led to concerns about their ability to undermine cryptographic systems, including those securing Bitcoin transactions. Bitcoin relies on algorithms such as SHA-256 and ECDSA for mining and digital signatures, which could be vulnerable to quantum attacks, although no such attacks have yet taken place. 

Emin Gün Sirer, co-founder of Ava Labs, highlighted that early Bitcoin holdings stored in Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) format might be susceptible to quantum computing attacks and has suggested measures like freezing Satoshi Nakamoto’s coins or setting a sunset date for P2PK transactions to mitigate potential risks. 

Despite these concerns, experts believe that Bitcoin’s security remains robust against existing quantum computing capabilities. Analysts from AllianceBernstein analysts said that Willow’s 105 qubits are still far from the several million qubits needed to overthrow the Bitcoin network, meaning that “any practical threat to Bitcoin seems to remain decades away.” indeed, the technology required to break Bitcoin’s encryption is still in its infancy, with estimates suggesting that a quantum computer would need millions of qubits to pose a real threat. 

In addition, overthrowing the Bitcoin network is likely far down the list for operators of such hugely powerful systems, with everything from military and other politically motivated use cases almost certainly taking precedent with the first raft of quantum computers.