Send comments and tips to talk at talkingpointsmemo dot com. To share confidential information by secure channels contact me on Signal at joshtpm dot 99 or via encrypted mail at joshtpm (at) protonmail dot com.
The term constitutional crisis gets used a lot these days. By a very fair definition weve been in one since January. A more apt and consequential meaning, however, is a crisis in which the legitimacy and continuation of the state rests in the balance or whether it fragments and degenerates into civil war, military rule or state disintegration. Today President Trump proposed something that, to my view, for the first time provides a path to such a crisis.
In a Truth Social post, Trump appeared to order a new census to be undertaken now, as opposed to the next constitutionally scheduled one in 2030. This new one would violate the Constitution by only counting citizens and legal residents. It would then, it seems, try to reapportion Congress using the numbers produced by this unconstitutional Census in time for the 2026 and/or 2028 election. In other words, Trump would by executive fiat change how many representatives each state sends to Congress and each states electoral votes. Thats quite literally how you rig an election. So in this scenario Californias and New Yorks delegations show up in 2027 and Trumps people say, no, you dont have X reps. You have X-4. Send these other folks home. Theres simply no way to accept a president unilaterally and unconstitutionally taking away a states representation in Congress and the Electoral College and continuing to accept the legitimate authority of the federal government. I know thats a big statement. But theres not.
The Constitution is crystal clear on two points. Theres a census once every decade. The count is of all persons in country, and their status is irrelevant. Obviously the Constitution is one thing and what this Supreme Court says is another. I wouldnt be shocked to see this Supreme Court come up with a way around the crystal clear language and original intent on who is counted in the census. Im more skeptical that theyll accept a new one-off census. But they could. Its a deeply corrupt institution. Thats your path to the dissolution of the union.